华北水利水电大学学报（社会科学版）

为研究中部五省债务规模管理和风险控制,实现区域经济健康稳定发展,选取1992—2019年一般公共财政收入数据,运用ARMA模型和改进的KMV模型对中部五省未来五年的财政收入、债务违约距离、预期违约率和合理举债上限进行了测算,同时基于债务期限和债务风险控制原则,通过线性规划模型为中部五省未来五年债务发行科学设计方案。结果表明:债务结构、债务期限及地区经济发展程度都对地方债务风险控制产生联动影响。应科学合理确定债务发行规模,为短期和长期风险管控奠定坚实根基。

For the purpose of studying debt scale management and risk control of five central provinces and achieving the healthy and stable development of regional economy, this article selects the general public fiscal revenue data from 1992 to 2019 and uses the ARMA model and modified KMV model to analyze the fiscal revenue, debt default distance, expected default rate and the upper limit of debt of the next five years, and at the same time a scientific design plan of debt issuance of central five provinces of next five years is designed based on the principle of debt period and debt risk control. The results show that the debt structure, debt maturity and degree of regional economic development all have a joint impact on the control of local debt risks. The scale of debt issuance should be determined scientifically and reasonably to lay a solid foundation of risk management and control in the short-term and long-term run.