华北水利水电大学学报（社会科学版）

推动低碳经济与制造业高质量发展深度融合，是实现“双碳”目标与制造强国战略的关键路径，对于我国经济绿色转型与可持续发展具有重要意义。基于熵权TOPSIS法与耦合协调度模型，实证检验2012—2022年中国30个省份低碳经济与制造业高质量发展之间的耦合协调关系，运用障碍因子诊断模型对两系统耦合协调度的影响因素进行分析。研究发现：(1)2012—2022年，中国低碳经济与制造业高质量发展水平均呈现增长趋势，且存在显著的地区差异；(2)低碳经济与制造业高质量发展的耦合协调度呈阶段式波动上升趋势，依次经历了初期失调(2012—2013年)、缓慢提升(2014—2018年)和逐步协调(2019—2022年)3个阶段，耦合协调度由西北地区向东南沿海地区逐渐提升；(3)在影响耦合协调度的主要障碍因素中，创新驱动、低碳技术、对外开放因素位居前列，与其相对应的二级指标也是关键障碍因素。基于此，提出以下管理启示：优化制造业结构，加速绿色转型；实施区域差异化政策，促进区域协调发展；强化创新驱动，加速成果转化。

Promoting the deep integration of the low-carbon economy and the high-quality development of manufacturing industry is a key path to achieving the “dual carbon” goals and the manufacturing power strategy. It is of great significance for the green transformation and sustainable development of China's economy. Based on the entropy weight TOPSIS method and the coupling coordination degree model, this study measures the coupling coordination degree between low-carbon economy and high-quality development of manufacturing industry across 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, and applies the obstacle factor diagnosis model to explore the main influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of the two systems.The results are as follows.Firstly, during the study period, the level of low-carbon economy and high-quality development of manufacturing industry in China showed an increasing trend, with significant regional differences. Secondly, the coupling coordination degree of low-carbon economy and high-quality development of manufacturing industry showed a stage-type fluctuation upward trend, which has experienced three stages-initial imbalance(2012—2013), slow improvement(2014—2018) and gradual coordination(2019—2022). From a spatial point of view, the coupling coordination degree gradually increases from the underdeveloped northwest region to the southeast coastal region. Thirdly, among the main obstacle factors affecting the coupling coordination degree, innovation-driven, low-carbon technology, and opening to the outside world are at the forefront, and their corresponding secondary indicators have also long been key obstacles. In addition, with the continuous advancement of policy guidance and technological innovation, the coupling and coordination degree of China's low-carbon economy and high-quality development of manufacturing industry is expected to continue to improve.